This document has two parts. The first is a visual example of how the Risk Dashboards could look integrated into Cointelegraph, starting with the reading that sits beside the price and then the full panel a reader gets on clicking it. The second walks through the five dashboards chart by chart: what each one shows, and why it would matter to a Cointelegraph reader. The visual example lists only a few data points; we could add as many metrics as you want.
Beside every price sits a Risk Outlook reading: how much movement to expect from that asset, refreshed hourly.
The number is the way in. Click it and one panel opens with the full story: what the number means for the week ahead, how it compares with the past, where it sits against the asset's own history, and what it would mean in dollars for what you hold.
| Name | Price | 24h % | 7d % | Market cap | Risk outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $63,776.21 | ▲ 1.65% | ▲ 0.54% | $1.27T | 30.32% Very high▸ |
Clicking the Risk Outlook number opens a single panel for that asset. Its sections sit in the tabs below, and a reader can go straight to whichever one answers their question.
| 1 day | 7 days | 30 days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past | 31.1% High | 25.7% Medium | 27.3% Very high |
| Forecast | 29.0% High | 30.3% Very high | 31.9% Very high |
Total volatility counts every move, up and down, as one number. Splitting it shows which side is moving the market: rallies (good volatility) or falls (bad volatility).
If you hold $1,000 of BTC, a typical week moves it by about ±$42. An ordinary bad day has taken it down about $35, and a genuinely bad one about $52. The deepest fall of the past year was −54%, and the price has not yet climbed back—it still sits about 49% below that high. Days with a move beyond ±5% arrived about one in 28.
Price tells you where your asset is. It does not tell you whether the week ahead is likely to be calm or violent—and that is what decides how rough a ride your holdings are in for.
The forecast answers that question, and it moves even when price does not: two assets can both be flat today while the models expect one of them to move several times more than the other over the month ahead.
Each dashboard heading below (marked ) links to the live dashboard on riskprotocol.io. Open it alongside this page to see every chart next to its description.
| Chart | What it shows | Why it matters to a DeFi user |
|---|---|---|
| Current Volatility Snapshot | Three gauges for whichever asset you select. The first shows total volatility, meaning how much the price has been moving overall. The other two split that movement into upside volatility, the part that came from rises, and downside volatility, the part that came from falls. Each needle is placed against that asset's own range for the past year. | These gauges tell you whether the asset is moving calmly or wildly compared with its own past year, and whether that movement is coming from rises, which make holders money, or from falls, which cost them. The comparison against the asset's own history matters because a reading that is normal for one coin can be extreme for another. |
| Volatility Over Time | A line chart tracking three measures through time: the asset's total volatility, the part coming from rises, and the part coming from falls. | The direction of these lines usually tells you more than their level, because a market that is becoming more volatile behaves very differently from one that is calming down, even when both pass through the same reading. Following the trend also shows whether a burst of movement was a one-off event or the start of a rougher stretch. |
| Volatility Spread Over Time | A single line measuring rise-driven volatility minus fall-driven volatility, day by day. The line sits above zero when rallies are the bigger moves and below zero when falls are. | This line works as an early warning, because it often changes sign before the price trend itself turns. When a market gradually stops rallying hard and its falls become the bigger moves, that shift appears here while the price chart still looks steady. |
| Rolling Return Over Time | A line chart of the asset's gain or loss over a rolling window of the past 1, 7 or 30 days, drawn through time. | This chart answers whether the movement actually paid, because two assets can swing equally hard over the same stretch while one ends higher and the other ends lower. Volatility on its own cannot tell those two apart. |
| Chart | What it shows | Why it matters to a DeFi user |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast Volatility | Three gauges showing how much movement the models expect from the asset over the next day, the next 7 days and the next 30 days, each placed against that asset's own past year. | Almost every other number on a market page describes what has already happened, which makes this the one to check when deciding what to do next: it estimates whether the coming days are likely to be calm or rough before they arrive. |
| Forecast Volatility Term Structure | A curve of expected volatility at every horizon from tomorrow out to 90 days. Fainter lines behind it show the same curve as it looked 7, 30 and 90 days ago. | The shape of the curve says when the movement is expected, because a curve that rises with the horizon means the models see bigger moves further out, while one that falls means the current stress is expected to fade. The older curves behind it add context by showing whether those expectations have been building or easing over recent weeks. |
| Volatility Regime Heatmap | A colour-coded grid with one row per asset. Six cells per row show past and expected volatility at three time horizons, each cell coloured from Very Low to Very High by how unusual that reading is for that asset against its own past year. | Because every asset appears in one grid, this is the quickest way to tell whether a move belongs to one coin or to the whole market. A column of hot cells means the movement is market-wide, while a single hot row means something is happening to that coin alone, and those two situations usually deserve different reactions. |
| Chart | What it shows | Why it matters to a DeFi user |
|---|---|---|
| Sector Performance & Risk | A table grouping the 100 largest cryptocurrencies into nine sectors by what they actually do, from blockchain infrastructure and DeFI through to gaming and meme coins, with each sector's return, volatility and risk-adjusted score in the columns. | Crypto stopped moving as a single block years ago, so a rally or a selloff usually lives in one corner of the market rather than everywhere at once. This table shows which corner that is, and it also reveals whether your own holdings are spread across different sectors or concentrated in a single one. |
| Historical Sector Performance (six charts) | Six line charts, each drawing one line per sector through time. One chart each for: returns, total volatility, upside volatility (from rises), downside volatility (from falls), and two risk-adjusted scores (the Sharpe and Sortino ratios). | Because sectors take turns leading the market, these lines are where rotation first becomes visible: when money moves from one theme to another, the crossover shows up here before it is obvious in the headlines. |
| Chart | What it shows | Why it matters to a DeFi user |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregated Group Performance & Risk | A table splitting the 100 largest cryptocurrencies into five groups of twenty by market value, from the biggest coins down to the smallest, with each group's return, volatility and risk-adjusted score. | This table answers whether the extra risk of holding smaller coins is currently being rewarded. When the biggest coins are earning more with less movement, moving down the size curve adds risk without adding return, whereas a stretch in which the smallest coins out-earn the majors is one of the earlier signs that a speculative phase is building. |
| Historical Size Cohort Performance (six charts) | Six line charts, each drawing one line per size group through time. One chart each for: returns, total volatility, upside volatility (from rises), downside volatility (from falls), and two risk-adjusted scores (the Sharpe and Sortino ratios). | The smallest group deserves particular attention, because it tends to move first and hardest in both directions. When its lines start running ahead of the rest, a boom or a bust is often further along than the large coins alone would suggest. |
| Chart | What it shows | Why it matters to a DeFi user |
|---|---|---|
| VaR Analysis: Daily Returns Histogram | A bar chart stacking up the asset's daily moves from the recent past. Most bars cluster around small moves, with a thin tail of extreme days, and a marked line shows the loss a single day is not expected to exceed at your chosen confidence level. | The marked line gives you a working boundary between an ordinary bad day and a genuinely exceptional one. When a day lands beyond it, the more likely explanation is that market conditions have changed, rather than that you were simply unlucky. |
| VaR Analysis: Returns Density vs. Normal Distribution | Two curves laid over each other: the smooth bell curve a calm, orderly market would produce, and the shape this asset's returns actually trace. | Wherever the real curve sits fatter at the edges than the bell curve, big days happen more often than a calm model would predict, and that gap is why crypto keeps surprising people who expect it to behave like a stock index. |
| Distribution Shape | Two numbers summarising the pattern of an asset's returns: skewness, which says whether the big surprises tend to be rises or falls, and kurtosis, which says how much of the risk is packed into a few rare days. | A negative skewness tells you that when this asset produces a big surprise, the surprise is usually a fall, while a high kurtosis tells you that its risk arrives in bursts, with long calm stretches punctuated by enormous days. Together they explain why a quiet month is weak evidence that an asset is safe. |
| Historical Drawdowns | A chart tracking how far the asset sat below its own highest price so far, continuously through history. The line touches zero at every new peak and dips with every decline until the old peak is regained. | This chart is worth studying before buying, because it shows what holding the asset through its worst stretches would actually have felt like, including how deep the falls went and how long the wait was before the price returned to its old peak. |
| Top 20 Drawdown Events by Magnitude | A table of the asset's twenty deepest falls on record: how far the price fell from peak to bottom, how long the fall lasted, and how long it took to climb back to the old peak. | The duration columns matter as much as the depth, because a 40% fall that recovers within a month is a very different experience from one that drags on for a year. Long recoveries are usually what make holders give up, so the length of past falls is a fair test of whether you could hold through the next one. |
| 30-Day Rolling Ulcer Index | A line tracking a single score that combines how deep recent declines have been with how long they have lasted, over a rolling 30-day window. Deeper falls count extra, and the score stays near zero while the price sits at or near its highs. | Ordinary volatility counts rises and falls alike, whereas this score counts only the part that hurts to hold, which is time spent below a previous high. When it climbs while volatility stays flat, the market is becoming more painful to hold even though it does not look any wilder. |
| Frequency of Extreme Moves (Last 30 Days) | A count of how many of the last 30 days moved more than 5%, how many moved more than 10%, and how many moved more than 2.5 times that asset's own usual daily swing. | This turns tail risk into something you can simply count. A month without a single extreme day suggests the market has been unusually compressed, while a cluster of extreme days tells you conditions have already shifted and the recent past is a poor guide to the days ahead. |